Super Tuesday 3 Polls and Predictions

Tonight is the Eve of what is being called Super Tuesday 3 and the candidates are awaiting an enormous night. Tomorrow, voters in five states go to the polls to select the nominee from their party for president. The states up for grabs tomorrow are: Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, and Ohio. Also, the Republicans will have a caucus in Northern Mariana Islands. Let’s take a look at some recent polls and make a few predictions for both parties leading up to Super Tuesday 3.

Republican Side:

Florida (99 delegates; winner take all)- Trump leads 43% to Rubio’s 24.4% with Cruz in 3^rd and Kasich in 4^th (based on the realclearpolitics.com poll average). Based on these numbers, it looks like a landslide victory for Mr. Trump. However, Rubio has claimed to be winning early votes and it is possible that his anti-Trump strategy will pull in some of the Cruz or Kasich voters.

Prediction: Trump wins but only by 5-7%- all 99 delegates for Trump

Illinois (69 delegates; proportional)- There are minimal polls available for Illinois, however the most recent polls done by CBS News and NBC show Trump with a slight lead, approximately 7% over Ted Cruz, with Kasich in 3^rd and Rubio in 4^th. There have been news-worthy events recently in Illinois, specifically Trump having to cancel a rally over the weekend due to protesters at the rally. In my opinion, this violence does not do any good for Trump. Enough voters will blame him for the violence due to comments he has made recently, such as telling his supporters to punch the protesters in the face.

Prediction: Cruz edges Trump by 2%, however they basically split the 69 delegates in half (36 for Cruz and 33 for Trump)

Missouri (52 delegates; proportional by districts)- Once again, there has been very little polling in Missouri. In the only poll, which was done by Fort Hays St. University in the first week of March, Trump has a 7% lead over Cruz.

Prediction: Trump by 4% over Cruz, with Trump getting more delegates than Cruz (34 for Trump and 18 for Cruz)

North Carolina (72 delegates; proportional)- In every recent poll in North Carolina, Trump has clear advantage, leading by 10-20% over Ted Cruz. It seems unlikely that anyone will overtake Trump for the lead in N.C.

Prediction: Trump by 16% over Cruz, Trump gets a large majority of the delegates in N.C. (46 delegates for Trump, 26 for Cruz)

Ohio (66 delegates; winner take all)- Ohio is a huge state for the Republican side of the election. It is the home state of John Kasich and he needs to win the state to realistically continue running in this election. Up until about one week ago Trump had a slight lead in the polls (approximately 5%), but since the Kasich has gone ahead by 4-5%. Kasich has a very high approval rate as governor of Ohio and his supporters are likely to turn out in high numbers to support him at the polls.

Prediction: Kasich by 6% over Trump, Kasich gets all 66 delegates

Republican Delegate Count for Super Tuesday 3:

Trump- 212

Cruz- 80

Kasich- 66

Rubio- 0

Clearly, tomorrow will not be the night for Rubio, barring a shocking victory in his home state of Florida. Kasich and Cruz will feel good about their nights, however, Trump does continue to expand his delegate lead. If Rubio drops out (which he stated that he will not even with a loss in Florida), we will all be watching to see where his supporters go. If Cruz or Kasich can pick up the majority of these voters, then Trump may not have wrapped this primary up yet for the Republicans.

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Democratic Side (all proportional):

Florida (246 delegates)- Hillary Clinton has shown a large lead in Florida in all the polling data. Her average lead is above 20% over Bernie Sanders. There is really no question who will win this primary.

Prediction: Clinton by 24%, Clinton receives 156 delegates, Sanders gets 90 delegates)

Illinois (182 delegates)- The recent polling, although limited in numbers, shows an extremely tight race in Illinois. Neither candidate shows any significant lead in the polls, however with Illinois being Obama’s home state and it being a very diverse population of voters, Hillary may have a slight edge in the state.

Prediction: Clinton by 3% over Sanders (99 delegates for Clinton, 83 delegates for Sanders)

Missouri (84 delegates)- Missouri has had very little polling completed leading up to the primary. One poll has Clinton with a 7% advantage, however it was a fairly small sample size. In the most recent poll done by Public Policy Polling, Sanders was ahead by 1%, clearly in the poll’s margin of error.

Prediction: Sanders by a narrow margin of 2% (38 delegates for Sanders, 46 delegates for Clinton due to super-delegates)

North Carolina (121 delegates)- The polls in N.C. show Clinton with a lead of approximately 24% over Sanders. Again, in states with a diverse population, like N.C. have gone heavily towards Clinton. In this case the polls are clearly going to be a predictor of the outcome.

Prediction: Clinton by 23% over Sanders (75 delegates to Clinton and 46 delegates for Sanders)

Ohio (159 delegates)- Recent polling has shown a narrowing lead for Clinton over Sanders in Ohio. The last poll completed had Clinton with a 7% advantage. This will be a state to watch on Tuesday as Sanders was able to pull an upset in Michigan and will look for another here in Ohio.

Prediction: Sanders by 1% in an extremely tight race (76 delegates for Sanders and 83 delegates for Clinton)

Democratic Delegate Count for Super Tuesday 3:

Clinton- 459

Sanders- 333

Sanders does pull out two victories which he will claim are “huge”, but even in the states that he wins he is not gaining any ground in the delegate count when super-delegates are added in. Also, Clinton is going to win larger states by a greater margin than Sanders is winning in smaller states. This means that when delegates are split proportionally she is gaining more delegates than Sanders. This race will continue, but Sanders is on the verge of falling too far behind in the delegate count to be in serious contention for the nomination.

Let us know your predictions in the comment section below!

Obama's Eventual Supreme Court Nominee

Last month, Supreme Court justice Antonin Scalia passed away. He was one of the most conservative justices on the Supreme Court in recent times. Since his passing, the republican controlled senate has repeatedly stated that they will not even consider a hearing on the eventual nominee from president Barack Obama.

The republicans claim that since it is the last year of the presidency that the American people should get to elect a new president to choose the nominee. The problem with that idea is that Obama was elected to serve 8 years, not 7. If Obama stopped being the president now then people would be very upset by it, okay maybe the republicans would be happy about that. The point is that Obama was elected and has the responsibility to choose a nominee for the Supreme Court.

Once a nominee is chosen by the president, it is the senate's responsibility to hold a hearing and then vote on the nominee. This is what needs to be done if we are going to follow the clear precedent that has been set. Now, if the senate votes and the nominee is not confirmed then everyone has at least completed their responsibility. Then it will fall on the next president and senate to choose and confirm the nominee.

If the situation was reversed (I.e. There was a republican president and a democrat controlled senate) then yes I know they would most likely do the same thing. This does not make it the right thing to do by any means. Politicians over and over refuse to follow the rules and standards that our country has been following for over 200 years. Show some respect for our great nation and at least have the hearing on Obama's nominee.

Political Correctness

What does political correctness mean? According to Merriam Webster, the phrase politically correct means “agreeing with the idea that people should be careful to not use language or behave in a way that could offend a particular group of people.” Politicians (specifically on the right of the aisle) have clearly decided that offending groups of people is an acceptable way of gaining votes in a wild presidential election. Donald Trump has said there is “no time for political correctness.” Marco Rubio has stated that political correctness is “free speech under assault.” Ted Cruz claims that “political correctness is killing people”. The only remaining Republican presidential candidate that has stayed away from the political correctness issue is the slightly more moderate John Kasich.

We keep hearing conservatives say that they want to protect the constitution and the bill of rights. Let’s take a quick look at the bill of rights and other amendments in the constitution to see how they are planning on protecting the rights of individuals. The first amendment gives the people of the United States freedom of religion. The fifth amendment gives individuals equal protection under the law. The fourteenth amendment prohibits states from discriminating against employees based on membership in a group, like a race, religion, or sex.

How do conservatives plan on protecting our rights when they have decided that offending groups of people based on race, religion, sexual orientation is acceptable campaign rhetoric? Mr. Trump has over and over said that all Muslims hate America. He wants to ban them from coming into America and says that Muslim-Americans should have to be in a government database. Furthermore, he has said that they should carry identification cards showing their religion. That sounds a whole lot like Nazi Germany when Jewish citizens were forced to wear a gold Star of David on their clothing.

Conservatives may need to re-think their decision that political correctness is unnecessary in today’s world. Based on the definition of political correctness, they are effectively telling the American people that insulting, degrading, and planning to take the rights of groups of people based on religion, race, or sex is the path that they want our country to take. America was built as a nation of immigrants, a nation of equality, and a nation of freedom. With a lack of political correctness, our citizens are being discriminated against and losing their rights under the U.S. constitution. Let's KEEP America great by respecting all citizens regardless of their individual differences.