Tonight is the Eve of what is being called Super Tuesday 3 and
the candidates are awaiting an enormous night. Tomorrow, voters in five states go to
the polls to select the nominee from their party for president. The states up
for grabs tomorrow are: Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, and Ohio.
Also, the Republicans will have a caucus in Northern Mariana Islands. Let’s
take a look at some recent polls and make a few predictions for both parties
leading up to Super Tuesday 3.
Republican Side:
Florida (99 delegates; winner take all)- Trump leads 43% to
Rubio’s 24.4% with Cruz in 3rd and Kasich in 4th (based
on the realclearpolitics.com poll average). Based on these numbers, it looks
like a landslide victory for Mr. Trump. However, Rubio has claimed to be
winning early votes and it is possible that his anti-Trump strategy will pull
in some of the Cruz or Kasich voters.
Prediction: Trump wins but only by 5-7%- all 99 delegates
for Trump
Illinois (69 delegates; proportional)- There are minimal
polls available for Illinois, however the most recent polls done by CBS News
and NBC show Trump with a slight lead, approximately 7% over Ted Cruz, with
Kasich in 3rd and Rubio in 4th. There have been
news-worthy events recently in Illinois, specifically Trump having to cancel a
rally over the weekend due to protesters at the rally. In my opinion, this
violence does not do any good for Trump. Enough voters will blame him for the
violence due to comments he has made recently, such as telling his supporters
to punch the protesters in the face.
Prediction: Cruz edges Trump by 2%, however they basically
split the 69 delegates in half (36 for Cruz and 33 for Trump)
Missouri (52 delegates; proportional by districts)- Once
again, there has been very little polling in Missouri. In the only poll, which
was done by Fort Hays St. University in the first week of March, Trump has a 7%
lead over Cruz.
Prediction: Trump by 4% over Cruz, with Trump getting more
delegates than Cruz (34 for Trump and 18 for Cruz)
North Carolina (72 delegates; proportional)- In every recent
poll in North Carolina, Trump has clear advantage, leading by 10-20% over Ted
Cruz. It seems unlikely that anyone will overtake Trump for the lead in N.C.
Prediction: Trump by 16% over Cruz, Trump gets a large
majority of the delegates in N.C. (46 delegates for Trump, 26 for Cruz)
Ohio (66 delegates; winner take all)- Ohio is a huge state
for the Republican side of the election. It is the home state of John Kasich
and he needs to win the state to realistically continue running in this election.
Up until about one week ago Trump had a slight lead in the polls (approximately
5%), but since the Kasich has gone ahead by 4-5%. Kasich has a very high
approval rate as governor of Ohio and his supporters are likely to turn out in
high numbers to support him at the polls.
Prediction: Kasich by 6% over Trump, Kasich gets all 66
delegates
Republican Delegate Count for Super Tuesday 3:
Trump- 212
Cruz- 80
Kasich- 66
Rubio- 0
Democratic Side (all proportional):
Florida (246 delegates)- Hillary Clinton has shown a large
lead in Florida in all the polling data. Her average lead is above 20% over Bernie
Sanders. There is really no question who will win this primary.
Prediction: Clinton by 24%, Clinton receives 156 delegates,
Sanders gets 90 delegates)
Illinois (182 delegates)- The recent polling, although
limited in numbers, shows an extremely tight race in Illinois. Neither
candidate shows any significant lead in the polls, however with Illinois being
Obama’s home state and it being a very diverse population of voters, Hillary
may have a slight edge in the state.
Prediction: Clinton by 3% over Sanders (99 delegates for
Clinton, 83 delegates for Sanders)
Missouri (84 delegates)- Missouri has had very little
polling completed leading up to the primary. One poll has Clinton with a 7%
advantage, however it was a fairly small sample size. In the most recent poll
done by Public Policy Polling, Sanders was ahead by 1%, clearly in the poll’s
margin of error.
Prediction: Sanders by a narrow margin of 2% (38 delegates
for Sanders, 46 delegates for Clinton due to super-delegates)
North Carolina (121 delegates)- The polls in N.C. show
Clinton with a lead of approximately 24% over Sanders. Again, in states with a
diverse population, like N.C. have gone heavily towards Clinton. In this case
the polls are clearly going to be a predictor of the outcome.
Prediction: Clinton by 23% over Sanders (75 delegates to
Clinton and 46 delegates for Sanders)
Ohio (159 delegates)- Recent polling has shown a narrowing
lead for Clinton over Sanders in Ohio. The last poll completed had Clinton with
a 7% advantage. This will be a state to watch on Tuesday as Sanders was able to
pull an upset in Michigan and will look for another here in Ohio.
Prediction: Sanders by 1% in an extremely tight race (76
delegates for Sanders and 83 delegates for Clinton)
Democratic Delegate Count for Super Tuesday 3:
Clinton- 459
Sanders- 333
Sanders does pull out two victories which he will claim are “huge”,
but even in the states that he wins he is not gaining any ground in the delegate
count when super-delegates are added in. Also, Clinton is going to win larger
states by a greater margin than Sanders is winning in smaller states. This
means that when delegates are split proportionally she is gaining more delegates
than Sanders. This race will continue, but Sanders is on the verge of falling
too far behind in the delegate count to be in serious contention for the
nomination.
Let us know your predictions in the comment section below!
